Technical analysis in Forex
Technical analysis in Forex

Technical analysis is a way of analyzing the market that focuses on price and volume patterns. It assists traders in identifying locations where profit or risk reduction possibilities may exist, as well as warning indicators to avoid.

To estimate future price movements, technical analysts will examine charts and other data, searching for things like recent price moves, high-volume regions (showing widespread interest), levels of support and resistance, and technical indicators (such as moving averages). This enables them to make well-informed trading strategy judgments.

This article explains how to perform technical analysis on financial assets, the benefits and drawbacks of technical analysis, how it differs from fundamental analysis, and why it’s vital to do so before starting new transactions. Let’s get started with the fundamentals!

What is the definition of technical analysis?

Technical analysis is the technique of analyzing the price movements, or market activity, of a currency pair in forex trading, or other financial assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies.

Technical analysis is based on the idea that the price of a financial asset represents all available information about that asset. This means that, in the vast majority of situations, technical analysts ignore any fundamental considerations that may influence the price of a currency pair. Instead, they think that the price of an object reflects all a trader or investor wants to know about it. Short-term and long-term investments can both benefit from technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis vs. Technical analysis

Technical analysis uses numerous candlestick chart patterns to forecast market movements, whereas fundamental analysis examines various economic data, news, and central bank updates to estimate future price changes.

Traders that depend only on technical analysis tend to specialize in either short-term or intermediate-term trading. Fundamental traders, on the other hand, usually have a medium to long-term time horizon in mind.

Which method of analysis is the most effective? This question has no right or wrong answer. Beginners may find it simpler to begin with technical analysis and then go on to fundamental analysis. While some traders prefer to concentrate solely on technical research, others see the utility in include fundamental analysis in their trading plan. The only way to find the appropriate trading strategy is by trial and error, just as it is with finding the proper trading approach.

Technical analysis vs fundamental analysis

Technical analysis assumptions

Understanding the three fundamental assumptions on which technical analysis is based is the first step in executing it:

1. The market price reflects everything that could affect the asset

The efficient market theory, which permits traders to overlook all fundamental issues that might impact an asset, is based on this premise. As a result, technical analysts and traders often concentrate primarily on analyzing the price fluctuations of the instrument.

2. An asset’s price generally follows a predictable pattern.

Despite the millions of individual price fluctuations reported in a day, this assumption asserts that price movements are not random and follow certain trends. Technical analysis’ major goal is to identify the present trend and utilize it to forecast future trends.

3. Prices change in predictable patterns.

This assumption is based on the premise that human emotions such as fear and greed influence financial market values. As a result, if the same variables that drive traders’ emotions persist today, pricing patterns from the past are likely to replay.

The ideas outlined above explain why some technical analysis patterns and tools have been around for over a century and are still useful in today’s markets.

How to conduct a technical examination

First and foremost, you must comprehend your approach and have a trading strategy in place. This is critical because you must understand what type of market climate best matches your plan. You may then choose appropriate trading instruments based on this. If your strategy is centered on range trading, for example, you may want to choose a low-volatility currency pair like EUR/CHF rather than a volatile pair like AUD/JPY.

Before continuing on to the analysis, make sure your charts are “clean” – that is, that only the technical indicators that are part of your approach are visible on the chart. You should also avoid using too many indicators, as this may result in contradicting messages.

After you’ve completed your analysis, you’ll want to maintain note of your findings. You can accomplish this by writing them down or graphically emphasizing them (for example, highlighting an area of major resistance you think will not be breached).

The steps below will assist you in incorporating technical analysis into your trading strategy.

1. Recognizing the pattern

Because trading techniques may either follow or go against the trend, this is the initial stage in technical analysis for traders. However, you must determine if the present trend is an upward, downward, or sideways trend for each of these systems. Depending on your trading technique, each of these three price movements necessitates a distinct trading method. We’ll show how to use a trend following trading technique in this scenario.

Traders using this technique typically buy or take long positions in assets that are trending upward. In a downtrend, assets are often sold short, but in a trading range, instruments are commonly entered at established support or resistance levels where a trader feels a trend reversal is likely.

2. Drawing support and resistance levels

Support and resistance levels are points on a chart where an asset’s price is expected to revert or break out.

A support level is a point at which an asset’s downward price trend comes to a halt when purchasing demand rises, causing the trend to reverse and turn higher. The same logic applies to resistance levels, when the asset’s upward price momentum begins to wane and the price is more likely to revert and travel lower. Traders might find fantastic possibilities to start fresh trades at support and resistance levels.

Technical analysis in Forex |

3. Establishing entry and exit points

While finding regions of support and resistance can provide ideal entry points, technical traders should also consider other criteria when deciding on their entry positions. Technical indicators such as the Average True Range (ATR) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are among them (RSI). These are volatility indicators that might assist a trader determine whether a price move has enough velocity.

4. Risk management and position sizing

Professional traders employ technical momentum and volatility indicators like the Average True Range to aid with position size and risk management. You may utilize the ATR to determine where to set your stop loss once you’ve discovered an entry position, depending on your risk:reward ratio.

Some long-term traders, for example, prefer to place their stop loss order 1 ATR away from their entry position and their profit objective 3 ATRs away for a 1:3 risk:reward ratio.

What is the purpose of technical analysis?

Technical analysis is used by traders for the following purposes:

  • Identifying the overall trend
  • Identifying areas of value such as support and resistance levels
  • Determining the best entry and exit points for their trades
  • Managing their risk exposure and for position sizing

Advantages and disadvantages

Refer to the pros and drawbacks of utilizing technical analysis while trading to have a better grasp of why technical analysis may have its ups and downs.


Because the information is easier to grasp, technical analysis is more suited for novices. Fundamental analysis necessitates a thorough grasp of not only macroeconomics but also other market-influencing aspects such as geopolitics.

Technical analysis is a visual depiction of emotions and market psychology, and traders may learn a lot by looking at a chart alone.

Finally, most of the tools required to analyze the charts are free. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, can need the use of pricey technologies.


With so many indications to choose from, it’s easy to become lost and suffer from information overload. In general, sticking to 1-3 technical indicators is preferable, since having too many on your chart might result in contradicting indications.

Technical analysis is a subjective process. When two traders are shown the same chart, they may come up with radically different conclusions.

Technical indicators used in technical analysis

Technical indicators are mathematical calculations – often as basic as a trendline – that traders use to determine whether an asset has achieved its peak or bottomed out. It forecasts the direction of the financial market being studied by using historical price, volume, and open interest data. This fundamental understanding can aid a trader in identifying trading opportunities.

The following are two of the most widely used indicators:

Moving Average Indicator (MA)

The moving average indicator is one of the most often utilized technical indicators for detecting market trends. When the short-term MA crosses over the long-term MA, for example, it indicates the possibility of an upward trend in the future. The moving average indicator is also commonly employed by traders to determine the trend reversal level.

Moving averages come in a variety of shapes and sizes, and some traders employ more than one to validate their signals. Simple moving averages, exponential (greater weight given to recent values), and weighted moving averages are some examples (giving each day in the lookback period equal importance).

Technical analysis in Forex |

Divergence between moving average convergence and divergence between moving average convergence and divergence between moving average convergence and diver (MACD)

 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is a technical momentum oscillator that shows two exponential moving averages, one of which is subtracted from the other to form a signal line or “divergence” (MACD Line), and then added back to the other (signal).

Signal length, moving average convergence/divergences frequency, and periodicity are the three key parameters. These values are set to 12, 26, and 20 by default. The longer the duration of an MA, the more weighting it provides, but it also reduces sensitivity since there are fewer times during which change may occur as time goes on.

MACD indicator on chart

In technical analysis, how to employ candlestick patterns

A candlestick chart is a way of showing all of the critical price data that a trader need. During a certain time period, the opening, high, low, and closing prices are shown and easily recognized. They are frequently chosen over regular bar charts because they are considerably easier to comprehend from a visual standpoint (especially when combining multiple candlesticks together to form – candlestick patterns).

Candlesticks (via patterns) are used to gauge market sentiment in terms of bullish and bearish strength. Each of these patterns tells us something different about the price chart’s potential.

The examination of a candlestick chart gives information that is clearly accessible. When the close is higher than the open, for example, you can tell right away since the body is green. You can conclude a short-term upswing is in place if this happens numerous days in a row. When looking at a bar chart, this information is more difficult to spot. A candlestick chart can also provide more information than other charts, such as a line chart.

Technical analysis strategies

It will take a lot of trial and error to establish the best trading technique. Beginners typically start with extremely simple techniques and gradually add additional indications and regulations as they gain experience. A sophisticated approach, on the other hand, does not ensure success.

Here are some fundamental tactics that make use of technical analysis:

MA Crossover – A trend-definition approach in which a trader looks for periods when a short-term moving average crosses above or below a longer-term moving average.

When the 50 MA crosses above the 200 MA, buy, and when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 DMA, sell.

Bullish/Bearish Divergence – Traders who use this approach will seek for periods when the price of an instrument and an oscillator diverge.

For instance, an instrument’s price may continue to rise while the RSI (relative strength index) on the same timeframe moves in the opposite direction. This might indicate that the rally is losing momentum, prompting traders to search for short opportunities.

Is technical analysis truly effective?

Whether technical analysis works or not has long been a point of contention. TA allows for greater interpretation; two traders looking at the same instrument on the same period could have entirely different ideas about where the asset will go.

Overall, technical analysis works, and since so many traders use it, it may become self-fulfilling. The 200 moving average, for example, is a tool that many traders use or at least monitor. This indicator can be considered as having predictive capabilities if enough market players anticipate that the price of a falling instrument will rebound off the 200 DMA and purchase ahead of or at that level of support.

The same may be said for traditional degrees of support and opposition. In the EUR/USD, for example, the psychological level of 1.20 is significant. A breakthrough to the upside might spark more momentum buying, pushing the currency pair higher.

Such events, on the other hand, tend to have a short-term impact on markets. Although a breach over 1.20 may have boosted EUR/USD, it is doubtful that the currency pair would experience a strong rally only as a result of it. The forex market is far too large, and there are far too many market participants, each with their own strategy and objectives.


While not intended to be comprehensive, the material presented above summarises key features of technical analysis that can benefit traders of all levels and aid in the development of technical trading abilities.

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